Players who are talented but not in tip-top condition will not survive the rigors of the French Open.
Serena Williams and Marcos Baghdatis are two of my favorite players, and I gave Serena a chance to win the French, but only because of her champion's heart. After watching the first week of the French Open, I'm convinced that she would be a major long-shot to win the title at Roland Garros. Some may point to the Australian Open where Serena played herself into shape and won the championship. I say the Australian isn't the red clay of the French and it is a very different prospect.
Watching Baghdatis today, it was obvious that he had plenty of game to take down Andreev; he just didn't have the gas. The tremendous amount of sprinting players do from point to point, combined with the mental strain of the long, intense points, wears you down physically, mentally and emotionally. If you are not in great shape physically, that will also drain the other facets of your being out there on the unforgiving heaviness of the crushed brick.
No one can question Serena's talent or heart. Neither can one question Baghdatis' talent. If their appearances can tell us anything, we can certainly question their level of fitness. Serena has been working hard since the Australian Open, but it isn't obvious that she has fully recovered her fitness levels of two to three years ago when she was dominating the game. Baghdatis doesn't look as though fitness is a priority, and that shows in the latter stages of tournaments and matches.
It will be interesting to see if Serena can survive the pace of her match with Henin tomorrow, and if she does, to see how recovered she will be when she faces the winner of Jelena Jankovic and Anna Chakvetadze. If she makes it to the final, will she have what it takes to fight one more tough battle? My heart says "yes," but my mind says, "no." The Roland Garros grind will be too much for Serena to overcome, but it will help her get in the kind of shape she needs to be in to win Wimbledon.
