Week 1 Men's French Open Tennis
Few Upsets Set Stage for Roger Federer-Rafael Nadal Showdown
The Men’s French Open has lived up to the hype from the first six-foot-slide into a sweetly sliced backhand to last delicate dropshot of the first week. There weren’t as many upsets as one would expect on the crushed brick of Roland Garros, but a few seeds expected to show some flair and stroke their way into the latter rounds are now watching the Tennis Channel and NBC on the weekend.
Few Surprises in Early Rounds
In the men’s draw, it was a surprise to see No.5 Fernando Gonzalez take a straight-set-loss in the first round to unseeded Radek Stepanek. No.21 Dmitry Tursunov’s exit to unseeded Fernando Verdasco in the second round may have raised some eyebrows, but Tursunov has not had a good year, losing in the early rounds of his last eight tournaments.
Verdasco was also responsible for the biggest third-round upset, taking out No.12 David Ferrer in four sets. No.29 Filippo Volandri’s upset of No.7 Ivan Ljubicic appeared to be the most significant of the third round, but in the weeks leading up to the French, Volandri had beaten four top-20 players, including a straight-set (6-2, 6-4) win over Federer in Rome.
Intriguing Quarter-final Matches
The lack upsets setup some stimulating match-ups during the second week at Roland Garros. No.19 Guillermo Canas versus No.4 Nikolay Davydenko, and No.6 Novak Djokovic against unseeded Igor Andreev promise to be captivators. No.1 Roger Federer shouldn’t have too much difficulty with No.9 Tommy Robredo, nor should No.2 Rafael Nadal struggle with his No.23-seeded compatriot Carlos Moya, although Moya has been playing superbly of late.
Guillermo Canas versus Nikolay Davydenko
Canas dropped a straight-set (6-0, 6-4, 6-2) dismantling on a sizzling hot Juan Monaco, who had a tournament win three weeks ago in Austria, where he took out Davydenko in three sets. The week prior to that, Monaco had taken Federer to three sets while losing in Hamburg. Canas on the other hand, had lost in the first or second round of his last three tournaments since his losing in the finals of Miami and Barcelona. However, in his French Open run, Canas appears to be back on form.
Davydenko is playing as well as his seeding suggests he should at Roland Garros, despite underachieving this year. Despite only one semi-final and two quarter-final finishes in six clay-court tourneys since mid-April, he has only dropped one set in the tournament thus far. But Davydenko has lost to Canas both times they have played on clay, so it would be an upset on paper only if Canas were to win. Look for a Canas win here.
Novak Djokovic against Igor Andreev
Djokovic and Andreev will probably go five sets as both tend to tune-out during matches, and both are dangerous players. Djokovic has youth and a heavier weapons arsenal on his side, and has beaten Andreev in their only career meeting, a third-set tiebreak this past April in Portugal on clay. If Djokovic shows up to play and leaves his flair for the dramatic at home, he should prevail in four sets. If not, a more fit and mentally tough Andreev may prevail in five.
Road to Finals Not Easy for Federer, Nadal
Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal are likely to meet for the French Open title, but both will have to overcome significant challenges to get there, particularly if Canas and Djokovic make the semis. Federer has lost twice to Canas this year and is 1-3 lifetime against him. Nadal appears to have the easier route, with a 3-1 lifetime edge on Djokovic, and a considerable advantage in speed and mental fortitude. Yet, Djokovic is anxious to prove that he is a serious contender for the No.1 title, and there would be no better stage than Roland Garros to do so.
Despite the drama and compelling match-ups, when the cup is held high at tourney’s end, it is likely to be held in “King” Nadal’s hands unless Roger Federer employs a strategy different than he has previously.
