Verdasco a Surprise in Davis Cup
And Roddick and Tennis World Expecting David Ferrer vs US Team
Spain's Davis Cup Captain Emilio Sanchez surprisingly chose Fernando Verdasco instead of David Ferrer to play against Andy Roddick and James Blake in Davis Cup quarters.
Spain’s Davis Cup captain Emilio Sanchez made a surprise move by choosing no.35-ranked Fernando Verdasco to play singles against US singles players no.3-ranked Andy Roddick and no.9-ranked James Blake. The choice leaves no.16 David Ferrer on the sidelines since Verdasco is also tabbed to play doubles. It is a choice contrary to Spain's expected line-up.
What is Sanchez's rationale for leaving Ferrer, the only player among the Spaniards to have won a title this year, on the bench? Only the Spaniards know the reasons for their strategy, but we can speculate. Could it be because Ferrer has a recent loss against Roddick and may lack confidence? Could it be because Verdasco is an unknown to James Blake? Looking at the numbers may lead to a raised eyebrow at this choice.
The Match-ups by the Numbers
Neither Ferrer (1-2) nor Verdasco (2-7) has a winning record versus Roddick. Ferrer’s 5-7, 3-6 loss to Roddick in Miami last month is fresher than Verdasco’s tough, five-set loss to Roddick in last year’s US open, but Verdasco has lost three in a row to Roddick. His most recent win was in 2005 on clay. Ferrer’s most recent win against Roddick was at last year’s Sony Ericsson. Against Blake, Ferrer has one meeting on record, a straight-set loss in 2002. Verdasco and Blake have not met on tour. As for how Ferrer and Verdasco match up head to head, Ferrer has beaten Verdasco two of the three times they’ve played on tour, one victory on hard the other on clay.
Ferrer & Verdasco on Tour in 2007
Aside from head-to-head match-ups, a review of Ferrer’s and Verdasco’s singles records this year on the ATP Tour also prompts some head scratching. Verdasco is 6-8 overall and has not won more than two matches in any tournament in 2007. Most recently, at the Sony Ericsson in Miami, Verdasco lost his first match in straight sets to Florian Mayer, the 45th ranked player in the world. He has not beaten a player ranked higher than 64 on the ATP Tour this year. Ferrer on the other hand has a 17-7 singles record and has beaten players ranked much higher than any player Verdasco has beaten, including world no.7 and Davis Cup teammate Tommy Robredo.
Performance Comparisons
Looking at the players’ stats on the ATP tour for 2007, Ferrer and Verdasco appear to be relatively equal on serve. Ferrer has a slightly higher first serve percentage than Verdasco (66% – 64% respectively), while Verdasco has a slightly higher percentage of first-serve points won than Ferrer (70% – 68% respectively). The key number on serve, however, is that both have won 78% of their service games.
The major difference in the numbers between the two is in the number of wins on tour and their return games. Ferrer has a 70% win rate on tour compared to Verdasco’s 43%, and he also appears to be a much better returner, winning 38% of his return games to Verdasco’s 18%.
In Davis Cup, a minimum of three sets will be played, with a likelihood that matches will go beyond three sets. Verdasco is 3-3 this year in matches going three sets or more, and one of those wins includes a retirement in a tiebreak by his opponent who had won the previous two sets. He went 1-1 in the first round of Davis Cup against Switzerland, winning and losing in straight sets. Ferrer has gone 7-3 in matches going three sets or more this year, going 1-1 against Switzerland as well.
Tennis is More than Numbers
Admittedly, numbers aren’t everything, and what looks good on paper doesn’t always play out in actuality. There must be some good reason why Verdasco is playing instead of Ferrer. We can be sure that Captain Sanchez wants to win, and that he made the picks he did with the best interests of his team in mind. However, it would be great to have the inside scoop that explains why the Spaniard with the best record on the ATP tour this year is not in the lineup against the US Davis Cup team.
