US Open Men's Singles Preview
Can Novak Djokovic Crash the Federer-Nadal Party?
Novak Djokovic and James Blake add subplots to the main story of the Roger Federer-Rafael Nadal Grand Slam Rivalry and US Open Championships.
Ok, so we know the basic storyline every time a Grand Slam event comes around: Will World No.1 and top-seed Roger Federer and World No.2 and second seed Rafael Nadal meet in another Grand Slam Final? Of course that’s still the primary plot, but there are a few subplots that might pique a tennis fan’s interest.
Djokovic to Share the Marquee
Perhaps the juiciest story on the men’s side is whether Novak Djokovic can handle the pressure of being one of the favorites. There’s no doubt that Djokovic has the ability to win the Open, he proved that with his victories over the three top-ranked players in Canada’s Roger’s Cup. But it’s one thing to enter an event with everyone expecting Federer and Nadal to contend in the final, and another when your name is being mentioned in the same sentence with the two players who have won the past 10 Grand Slam events. Expectations have a way of slowing the feet, tightening the shoulder, and freezing the brain…unless you really have the stuff of which greatness is made.
Djokovic Heading for Semis
That said, Djokovic has beaten Nadal twice this year and Federer once, including his most recent meeting with both. If Djokovic isn’t overwhelmed by his new status on the ATP Tour and doesn’t stumble against the dangerous Mario Ancic in the first round, his first really tough test ought to come in the fourth round against No.16 seed Lleyton Hewitt. If he survives his fourth round challenge, he could be facing the resurgent No.17 seed Carlos Moya, the player who, in straight sets in Cincinnati, derailed the “Djokomotive” that was chugging along full steam ahead in Montreal. If Djokovic is made of the stuff I think he is, then he’s heading for a sweet semifinal showdown.
Blake at Home in New York
Speaking of story subplots with juice, No.6 seed James Blake may not have finished his degree at Harvard but he certainly closed well at Yale, beating fellow American Mardy Fish in the final of the Pilot Pen in New Haven. In addition to his book, Breaking Back, which has made the New York Times Best Seller List, Blake has authored a successful, summer hard court season. He has written himself a 12-4 record during the US Open Series, including one title and a final.
Blake Bolstered by New York Fans
Riding his wave of recent success, Blake, who serves and returns well enough to give anyone trouble (with the exception of Roger Federer) should have a good run bolstered by huge fan support in his native New York. Blake doesn’t have a gimme in his first match though. He plays Michael Russell, to whom he has lost all three matches they’ve played. Fortunately for Blake, all of those matches were in challenger events years ago.
Blake on Collision Course with Federer
Blake also has a potential tough match-up in the second round with Sam Querrey, who blasted 10 consecutive aces while eliminating Blake in the quarters at Indianapolis, and with whom Blake has gone three sets every time they’ve played. If Blake stays on form and gets through those early tests, his toughest challenges to overcome on the way to a rematch with Federer in the semis are likely to be No.18 seed Marcos Baghdatis in the fourth round and No.14 seed Guillermo Canas in the quarters. The key question with Blake is the same as with Djokovic: Can he shoulder the weight of high expectations?
Federer-Nadal the Usual Story
Blake and Djokovic are great subplots, but the marquee story remains the Federer-Nadal Grand Slam rivalry. Bottom line is that Federer has a spot reserved in the final barring an eclipse of the sun, a blue moon, and a major chill in Hades all at the same time. No.13 seed Richard Gasquet is a mild threat in the fourth round, based upon his tremendous talent, but Federer handled Gasquet in straight sets at Wimbledon with Gasquet playing as well as he ever has. Look for Federer to dispatch devoted fans Andy Roddick in the quarters and James Blake in the semis. Both have contributed much to the Federer legend, combining for a 1-20 record against him.
Roddick Will Do the Usual
Fifth-seed Andy Roddick will get plenty of media action, and maximum mentions from talking heads, but his action on the court will end by the quarters against Federer…if he gets there. To get to Federer, Roddick will have to get past spoilers like No.32 seed Ivo Karlovic, No.22 seed Paul-Henri Mathieu, and No.9 seed Tomas Berdych. Roddick’s serve and improved strategic play under the tutelage of Jimmy Connors should get him through his early round obstacles, but he’ll remain a Federer fan rather than a legitimate challenger.
Nadal's Health Questionable
Rafael Nadal has plenty of work to do if he’s to get his first US Open title. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga who has won a few challenger events this year and reached the round of 16 at Wimbledon or Dimitry Tursunov, whom he has never played, is his likely third round opponent. A face-off against No.24 seed David Nalbandian or No.15 seed David Ferrer in round four awaits the King of Clay, who has not had much success on hard courts since his Indian Wells win in March.
Nadal's Hard Court Troubles
Since his win in March, Nadal has played three hardcourt events. He has lost twice to Djokovic and he retired against Juan Monaco in Cincinnati two weeks ago. If he is healthy and returns to form, he is looking at a pelea dura contra No.25 seed Marat Safin or No.7 seed Fernando Gonzalez. Tough work to be certain, but nothing that Rafa can’t handle, if (and that’s a big I F) his knee and wrist are 100%. And then Rafa’s fun really begins, because he’ll be facing the “Djoker” in the semis, and Novak has had the last laugh the last two times they've played.
Picking Upsets
In any event worth its salt, upsets serve as spicy segues before the final chapter. Coming off his finals appearance in New Haven, unseeded American Mardy Fish is playing well and could take out the No.8 seed Tommy Robredo in the second round if Robredo is slightly off form. Although not really likely, Frank Dancevic may send home the extremely talented Marat Sarat, seeded No.25, and if he does, he should get to No.7 seed Fernando Gonzalez and upend him as well in the third round. Another major long-shot would be Belgium’s Kristoff Vliegen, who may stun a sliding Ivan Ljubicic, the 12th seed.
Federer to Claim No.12
When all is said and done, expect Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic to square off in the final, with Roger claiming his 12th Grand Slam title and reasserting himself as the reigning king of the ATP Tour. After all, this is a Grand Slam. You know who will be watching. How about you?
