Roger Federer's ATP Dominance Ends
Rafael Nadal's Supremacy Diminishing Federer's Aura of Invincibility
A third consecutive loss to Rafael Nadal at the French Open has shaken Roger Federer's confidence and is likely to have an impact on the entire ATP Tennis Tour.
Most Roger Federer fans don't want to think about his four-set loss (3-6, 6-4, 3-6, 4-6) to Rafael Nadal in the French Open final as a career-changing moment. But the result may be heralding the beginning of the end of Federer’s ATP Tour dominance. One could easily point to last year and project that Federer will win the rest of the Grand Slam events, and Nadal will make a decent showing at Wimbledon before finishing the year with a mediocre record. That’s possible, but doubtful, because Nadal is a better player than he was last year.
Nadal Better in 2007
Nadal’s all around improvement as a player has been evident this year. Throughout his incredible run of five titles, one final and one quarterfinal finish, in his last seven events (with his only losses coming to No.1 Federer and now No.3 Djokovic), Nadal has periodically surprised opponents and fans with serve-volley plays, and other aggressive moves to the net. With his improved serve and net games, has come enhanced confidence, which is likely to carry over to his performance at Wimbledon and elsewhere. Nadal even appears to be in better physical condition this year than last.
Federer Not As Dominant in 2007
Federer on the other hand, has not been playing with confidence. He has lost more matches (6) through half the season as he lost all of last (5), and has pulled out of Halle, Germany, which would have been his typical and final grass-court tune-up for Wimbledon. The message posted on his website says, “In an attempt to prevent injury after the long final in Paris, I cannot defend my title at the Gerry Weber Open in Halle…” Roger Federer pulling out of a scheduled, pre-Wimbledon tournament to prevent injury? Some Federer fans may buy that argument, but no other knowledgeable tennis fan would pay a nickel for that story.
Federer Losing Confidence
Prior to the French, Federer was cited as saying he was as fit as Nadal, and that he had new confidence based upon his win in Hamburg. If Federer is as intelligent as most tennis fans and pundits believe he is, then surely he didn’t really believe that he was as fit as Nadal. In addition, he would know that the Nadal he beat in Hamburg was physically, emotionally and mentally exhausted. Observing Nadal’s play and contrasting it to his previous play would have made that obvious. If Federer needed to play such mind games coming into the French Open, then clearly, he wasn’t very confident about beating Nadal at Roland Garros.
Mental Game is Key to Winning
Anyone who has played competitive tennis knows that the mental game in general, and confidence in particular, plays a major role in a player’s success. Federer is obviously less than confident against Nadal, as demonstrated by his abundant unforced errors on numerous opportunities to break Nadal’s serve, or to consistently implement the strategy that would give him a chance to beat Nadal on clay. It was the strategy he used to win the lone set he garnered; yet, once again, Nadal’s will proved to be the stronger of the two, and Nadal directed the tone, tempo and flavor of the match.
Nadal Destroys Federer's Aura of Invincibility
If Federer’s uneven play against players he has routinely handled (for example the Davydenko semifinal) is any indication, the lack of confidence evident against Nadal, appears to be seeping into his performance against other players. The racquet genius that has been tagged, “The Greatest of All Time” by some, is losing his aura of invincibility. It is imperative that Federer win Wimbledon, because if he doesn’t, his confidence will be at an all-time low and his opponents’ will be higher than at any point since 2003 when Federer began to make his run at the World No.1. Nadal is too far behind in ranking points to surpass Federer by year’s end. However, if the first half of this tennis year is a portent of things to come, we could see a change in the World No.1 by the end of 2008.
