Rafael Nadal has a much tougher road than Roger Federer to reach the men's final at the All England Club, but his improved game and mental toughness will prevail
Not many are giving Rafael Nadal a chance to walk away with the men’s title at Wimbledon, but given Nadal’s improved serve and more aggressive net play this year, he has an even better shot than last year when he lost to Roger Federer in the final. His draw appears tougher than Federer’s, and he will have to work harder to get to the final. But there are few out there that work harder for wins than Nadal.
Early Tests For Nadal
Nadal’s first-round opponent, unseeded Mardy Fish (world No.31), is a decent grass-court player who has made it to the third round at Wimbledon twice, and could give Nadal trouble. But Fish isn’t mentally tough enough to outlast Nadal in a five-setter. A good fourth-round test is likely against No.14 seed Mikhail Youzhny, who should advance past No.18 seed Yarko Nieminen in the 3rd round. Youzhny is 2-1 versus Nadal in their last three matches.
Berdych a Major Danger
If Nadal brushes past Youzhny, look for him to match up against No.7 seed Tomas Berdych or the revived Jonas Bjorkman, seeded No.19, in the quarters. More than likely it will be Berdych, and that battle doesn’t bode well for Nadal as he has lost to Berdych the three times they have played on hard courts. Nadal beat Berdych in the only match they have played this year, but that match was on clay. Berdych is also coming off a title win in Halle on grass, so he is playing well and should be confident coming into Wimbledon.
The Toughest Section of the Draw
Even if Nadal does get past Berdych, he will have to dig deep in the semis. The top quarter of the bottom half of the draw is perhaps the most difficult section of all. No.4 seed Novak Djokovic is the primary threat in this section, but it also contains potential spoilers such as Marcos Baghdatis, the No.10 seed who made it to the semis last year; No.16 seed Lleyton Hewitt, a former Wimbledon champion and quarterfinalist last year; and the No.23 seed David Nalbandian, another former Wimbledon finalist.
Karlovic a Dark Horse
Djokovic won’t have an easy time moving through the draw to reach Nadal in the semis. He is likely to face a third-round skirmish with No.45-ranked Ivo Karlovic, the 6’ 10”, unseeded Croat who just won Nottingham while recording the second fastest serve ever on the ATP Tour: 153 mph. Karlovic beat five players ranked higher than he was, including No.21 seed Dimitry Tursunov, en route to the title. If there is a potential dark horse, Karlovic is it. If Djokovic gets past that match, he’s likely to edge Hewitt in the fourth round
Djokovic and Baghdatis in the Quarters
No.6 seed Noklay Davydenko has shown an improved serve this year, but his grass court record is abysmal and nothing suggests that he will do anything more than his usual first or second-round swoon. Look for Baghdatis to emerge from this section to meet Djokovic in the quarters. More than likely it will be Djokovic beating Baghdatis in a tough four or five-set match to tango with Nadal in the semis.
Nadal Toughs it Out to Reach Final
Although Nadal’s game has improved since he gave Federer a tussle in the final last year, if it weren’t for his incredible will, he wouldn’t have much of a shot to get to the final given the many pitfalls awaiting him in this half of the draw. But that’s just it; when it comes to mental toughness and making an opponent beat you, there is no better in the game. Nadal will tough out a win against Djokovic the Serb or Karlovic the Croat to face Federer in the final. Then, of course, one of these two titans will carve another notch in history’s belt, and throw a wink at Bjorn Borg who was the last man to win the French Open and Wimbledon in the same year (Nadal’s goal), and to win five consecutive Wimbledon titles (Federer’s objective).
