Maria Sharapova's chances of winning the French Open are slim to none because of an ineffective serve and an inability to change her game plan.
If Maria Sharapova hopes to make anyway headway at all at the French Open, she is going to have to find a serve in the next few days. Not likely. Perhaps it is due to the shoulder injury, but Maria still cannot recapture the dominant serve she had when she won the US Open Last year and Wimbledon in 2004.
In her semi-final in Instanbul against Aravane Rezai of France, Sharapova got one first-serve in and was broken to begin the match. The precedent was set, and by the end of the first set, 6-2 for Rezai, Sharapova had double-faulted five times, faced nine breakpoints, and had not held serve a single time! By match-completion, Sharapova had raised her first serve percentage to 65% from the low of 52% in the first set. However, she only won just over half of the points in which she made her first-serve (56%).
On second serves, Sharapova won a dismal 13% of the points played, no doubt compliments of her seven double-faults. Throughout the match, Sharapova played better when returning that serving. She won 47% of the points of the return and 43% when serving. Given Sharapova’s inability to get past a Rezai-caliber player in Istanbul, it is highly unlikely that she will advance deep into the draw at the French.
Is there any hope at all for Maria to have a good run at Roland Garros without a serve? A very slight sliver of hope is all one can offer Sharapova fans. She can move forward against some of the lesser players without a serve, but she needs a tactician to help her do even that. Unfortunately for Maria, there doesn’t’ seem to be anyone on her team that is offering her sound tennis advice, or who can get her to take sound advice if they are providing it.
Despite her second-set improvement, it is obvious that Sharapova has no confidence in her first-serve, and if she has not completely recovered from a bum shoulder, what is the point of hitting a wildly ineffective first serve. A wise coach would advise Sharapova to serve the first as though it were her second, and go for placement rather than power. Whether she has an adequate second serve or not is a question for another time. Perhaps without the pressure of having to serve a second serve on almost every service point, her second serve would improve.
Sharapova is still quite sound off the ground, and can put sufficient pressure on the serve of most women she encounters on the WTA Tour. Why not treat her service game as though it were actually a return game, get the point started, and try to win using her strength off the ground? Rafael Nadal uses a version of this strategy on clay. Rarely does he go for an overpowering serve, choosing instead to place the first-serve in a strategic position, then work to win the point from the ground.
This strategy is sound if your opponent isn’t hurting you with her/his returns, and if you have a ground game to support it, which Sharapova does. It also reduces the stress on the shoulder, and with a suspect shoulder, such a strategy should be a no-brainer for Maria.
After crashing in Istanbul, it appears that the road back for Maria Sharapova is going to be a long and painful one, and it will have to go around the French Open. However, some good guidance would be a great complement to Ibuprofen for that ailing shoulder and hurting game.