Men’s Wimbledon Top-Half Preview
Roger Federer is Favored but French Open Loss Raises Questions
Roger Federer is the favorite to win his fifth consecutive gentlemen's singles title at Wimbledon, but his confidence may have been shaken by his loss to Rafael Nadal.
World No.1 and top-seeded Roger Federer is the prohibitive favorite to claim his fifth consecutive Wimbledon title after having won 28 matches in a row at Wimbledon and 48 consecutive matches on grass. However, since he skipped his pre-Wimbledon, grass court tune-up, no one knows if he has recovered from the psychological damage he suffered at Roland Garros. Whether he has regained the confidence that he had before his mini slump in March and April, will be evident in the early rounds.
Draw Favors Federer
Fortunately for Federer, the men’s draw favors his advance and his first round match poses little danger, even if he isn’t as confident early on as he will need to be to claim the title. His first round opponent, No.85-ranked and unseeded Teimuraz Gabashvili, has lost seven consecutive first-round losses coming in, so even a shaky Federer should get past him.
Marat Safin an Early Threat
Few on Federer’s half of the draw pose a serious threat to the four-time defending champ. Marat Safin (seeded No.26) can beat anyone on the ATP tour on any given day, providing he rediscovers the game that has been awe-inspiring at times. He’s scheduled to play Federer in the third round, and that might be early enough to catch Federer before he has worked off some of the rust, and pull off the upset. However Safin falls into the “What have you done for me lately” category, and it’s doubtful that he could maintain form to prevail in five sets.
Roddick No Real Challenge
No other seed in Federer’s half of the draw appears to be a serious threat. Third-seeded Andy Roddick is coming off his first title win of the year at Queen’s Club, and one would expect him to meet Federer in the semis yet again. However, his finals opponent at Queen’s Club, No.76-ranked and unseeded Nicolas Mahut, blew an easy match point in the second set of that match, and Roddick squeaked out a third-set tiebreak. Should Roddick reach the semis, his 1-13 record against Federer doesn’t bode well for an upset here.
Other Seeds Pose Little Threat
Fernando Gonzalez (No.5 seed) and Juan Carlos Ferrero (No.20 seed) are clay-court specialists, but Ferrero has made it to the round of 16 twice at Wimbledon and Gonzalez made it to the quarters in 2005 before losing to Federer. Gonzalez has the edge on faster surfaces, but neither has a good record against Federer, and should pose little problem for him in the quarters.
If No.9 seed James Blake, who has never made it past the third round at Wimbledon, gets past unseeded-but-dangerous Igor Andreev in the first round, he should make his exit against Ferrero in round three. Tommy Haas (seeded No.13) hasn’t played an event since early May due to a shoulder injury, and didn’t do much on grass when healthy. A first-round loss should not surprise Haas fans.
No.21 seed Dmitry Tursunov has a good grass court record and reached the semis of the Ordina Open, before losing to 6’ 10”, big serving, Ivo Karlovic. If Tursunov survives a tough first round skirmish with 39th-ranked Nicolas Almagro, he is likely to face Federer in the fourth round and lose to him for the third consecutive time.
Ljubicic a Surprise Semifinalist
No.15-seed Ivan Ljubicic may be the sleeper of the draw’s top half. The big Croat is serving well and made it to the final of the Ordina Open. Ljubicic should have a good match in the third round with either 17th-seed David Ferrer or unseeded Paul-Henri Mathieu who played well on Nottingham’s grass, losing to No.19 seed Jonas Bjorkman in the quarters. Ferrer reached the round of 16 in 2006 before losing to No.16 seed Lleyton Hewitt, but he hasn’t tuned up on grass and Mathieu has. An upset by the Frenchman is a strong possibility. Ljubicic should get by either, and if he makes it past unseeded Arnaud Clement and Roddick makes it to the fourth round as well, Ljubucic has a good chance of making the semis.
Murray Likely to Disappoint
Andy Murray, the 19-year-old, No.8 seed, would ordinarily be a solid pick to get into the later rounds. However, Murray’s back injury in April, and wrist injury in May has limited his match play and preparation. Murray’s first round opponent, unseeded Nicolas Lapentti hasn’t played Wimbledon since 2003, but his quarterfinal showing in 2002, suggests he knows the surface. If Murray isn’t 100% percent, he could disappoint the British fans in the first round.
Federer in Fifth Consecutive Final
Roger Federer with his A- game should be able to negotiate his way through the top-half of the men’s draw at Wimbledon. Unless Federer faces No.2 seed Rafael Nadal or fourth-seeded Novak Djokovic, the only two players likely to make him nervous enough to beat him, he will don his white jacket and a smile as he holds his fifth consecutive Wimbledon trophy high above his head at tourney’s end.
