Roger Federer has to employ a strategy specifically for Rafael Nadal on clay if he is to win the men's French Open title and a career Grand Slam.
Roger Federer has all the physical tools to win the French Open and to complete the first men’s tennis Grand Slam in almost 40 years, but to do so he has to get past Rafael Nadal, the greatest clay court player in the history of tennis. To beat Nadal, Federer has to bring a different strategy to Roland Garros’s clay than the one he uses to dominate the ATP Tour on other surfaces.
Federer's Genius
There’s no denying Roger Federer’s genius on the tennis court. He brings as complete a game to the court as any player in tennis history. He possesses perhaps the best forehand in the game, hits his backhand with power and spin, moves with gazelle-like ease for deceptive speed, and rivals John McEnroe’s virtuosity at net. Federer’s serve may not be as dominating as some of the bigger servers on the ATP Tour, but his combination of power and placement allows him to win 87% of his service games.
There is no shot in tennis that Federer cannot hit, and few can turn defense into offense as masterfully as Federer. Only Nadal comes close to Federer’s ability to convert a defensive position into an offensive assault. And, it is only Nadal that prevents Roger from being absolutely dominant in the game.
Federer is 63-12 (an 84% win percentage) versus top-ten players on the ATP Tour. If we take Nadal out of the mix, Federer is 60-5, for a 92% win rate against the best players in the world. No other player or team in major professional sports even approaches a 90% win percentage against the toughest competition in their sport.
Nadal Owns Federer on Clay
Rafa Nadal has dealt Federer 58% (7 of 12) of his losses in the 75 matches he has played against top-ten players, and has beaten Federer 7 of 10 times. Nadal and Federer have exchanged victories on hard court surfaces, but Nadal has owned Federer on clay, winning all five contests they have played on that surface.
Nadal’s performance against the best in the world is a 64% win percentage against the ATP Tour’s top ten (21-12). However, if we remove Federer from those numbers, Nadal’s win rate drops to 61% (14-9). With or without Federer in the tally, Nadal’s numbers are far from the dominant figures posted by Federer. Yet, Nadal will continue to foil Federer’s French Open and Grand Slam aspirations unless Federer devises a game plan specifically for Nadal on the red clay of Roland Garros, as Ashe did for Jimmy Connors at Wimbledon in 1975.
Federer's Weakness
If there is a weakness in Roger Federer’s game it is the lack of patience he sometimes demonstrates. Federer typically imposes his will on his opponents with his court generalship and shot-making. The players to whom he loses, Nadal and Guillermo Canas for example, are generally players who make very few unforced errors from the baseline, have the speed to return what would normally be winners against most players, and can counter-punch successfully. Against such players, Federer tends to go for too much too early and tries to make too many great plays before the opportune moment in the point.
Nadal’s ability to convert what would normally be a defensive situation into an offensive opportunity, much like Federer does, seems to frustrate Federer into forcing the action and into more unforced errors than usual. Nadal’s speed, power, and accuracy from the baseline also seem to make Federer hesitant to attack the net.
Federer's French Open Strategy
In order to beat Nadal, Federer will need to utilize all elements of his game. Neither trading blows with Nadal from the baseline nor consistently charging the net will maximize Federer’s chances of beating Nadal on clay. Instead, Federer should use the variety of his all court game to keep Nadal off balance.
Federer can beat Nadal at the French Open if he does the following: 1) Uses a variety of spin, depth, and pace to disrupt Nadal’s baseline rhythm; 2) Employs low, short slice down the middle that decrease Nadal’s angles and forces him to hit up on the ball; 3) Forces Nadal to play at net more than he would like; 4) Attacks Nadal’s second serve and forces passing shot attempts; and 5) Serves and volleys at least 25% of the time. If the above combination doesn’t work for Federer against Nadal on clay, then he may remain the greatest player of all time without a French Open title.
