2007 US Davis Cup Contenders
Will Andy Roddick and James Blake Hold Up at Winston-Salem?
Apr 5, 2007
The quarter-finals of the Davis Cup, tennis’ equivalent of golf’s Ryder Cup, is upon us. The United States begins play against Spain in Winston-Salem, NC tomorrow with a team that is fragile, both mentally and physically. Although the US doubles team of Mike & Bob Bryan is a good bet to win their match, the fate of the US Davis Cup team will be determined by the resilience of Andy Roddick’s hamstring and James Blake’s psyche.
US Squad Looks Good on Paper
On paper, the US should have a relatively easy win given the absence of world no.2-ranked Rafael Nadal. The US should be going into the weekend with a 1-point advantage with a virtual lock on the doubles point. The Bryan brothers have won two of the past three doubles events they have played on the ATP Tennis Tour, and won the season’s only major, for a total of three of the last five majors. None of their likely opponents have garnered accolades as a doubles player. It’s no stretch to score one for the US here.
The singles matches present a very different story however, and it is here that the US is likely to have trouble. With Andy Roddick (3rd-ranked player in the world) and James Blake (ranked no.9) versus Spain’s likely singles players, no.6-ranked Tommy Robredo and 16th-ranked David Ferrer, one would think that the US should win at least three of the four singles matches for an easy 4-1 result.
Although the tie is being played on hard courts, where both Blake and Roddick are comfortable, and should have the serving advantage, Robredo and Ferrer have proven that they can play well on hard surfaces. Both Spaniards have played all of their matches this season on hard courts and have done relatively well.
Ferrer started the season on a hot streak winning his first eight matches in the process of winning the Heineken Open and he reached the fourth round of the season’s first major, the Australian Open in January. Robredo started the year 8-2 with his only losses coming in the final of the Heineken to teammate Ferrer and to Roger Federer in the quarters of the Australian.
Robredo and Ferrer Top Returners
Looking closely at their games, Ferrer and Robredo rank among the top ten in service returns in the game. Ferrer is no.6 in points won when returning first serves and no.1 when returning second serves. Robredo ranks no.7 and no.8 respectively. In addition, both rank in the top 10 of return games won, with Ferrer being no.1 in that statistic. Fortunately for the US, Blake also ranks in the top 10 for points won on second serve and break points converted.
Regarding Roddick’s and Blake’s games, Blake went 12-1 his first 13 matches of the year, winning the Medibank International in January and making it to the fourth round at the Australian Open. However, none of those wins was against a top-ranked player, and his last two losses in early rounds of the Pacific Life and Sony Ericsson were to the 42nd and 65th ranked players on tour. Blake claims to be refreshed after the brief hiatus brought on by his early exit in Miami, but both Ferrer and Robredo will test that claim.
Roddick Solid When Healthy
Despite not having claimed a title this year, Roddick has been a consistent performer, reaching the semis or finals in all but his most recent effort at the Sony where he retired in the quarters with a pulled hamstring. All of his losses have been to quality players who were playing very well at the time. The question remains as to how well his hamstring has healed in just over a week. Given the nagging nature of hamstring injuries, and the quality of opponent that Roddick will be facing this weekend, there has to be concern on the US side.
Robredo’s and Ferrer’s recent results may be a source of hope for US fans, because neither has kept up the hot start with which he opened the season. Robredo has gone 5-4 for his last nine matches on tour, with his best results being two quarterfinal finishes.
However, he had as good a tournament in Miami as any of the players in the Davis Cup tie. He reached the quarters before losing to Guillermo Canas, who is playing as well as anyone on tour. The point is that Robredo appears healthy and should be ready. Since Ferrer’s hot start, he has won eight of fourteen matches without making it past the quarters in any event. He also had a straight-set loss to Roddick in Miami last week going down 5-7, 3-6 in the round of 16, so US supporters should find some comfort there.
Essentially this Davis Cup quarterfinal match-up will come down to who is more physically and mentally fit to win. Blake and Roddick are ranked in the top 10 for holding serve on the ATP Tour versus Robredo and Ferrer who are among the game's top returners. The surface is one on which all players have proven themselves proficient. Roddick has dominated Robredo since junior tennis and has a recent win over Ferrer, so if his hamstring is healthy enough, he is a solid bet to win against either.
Blake hasn’t shown much consistency or confidence of late and both Robredo and Ferrer have the ability to beat a less than stellar Blake. If Blake can recover his confidence of last season and earlier this year, and Roddick’s hamstring is healthy, the US should advance to the semifinals. If the US aces are not healthy in mind and body, look for Spain to advance.
Where to Watch the Action
You can see how it all plays out as Versus TV will telecast the matches live beginning at 2 p.m. eastern time and the Tennis Channel will rebroadcast the matches at 8 p.m. Eastern time. You can get results online as well.
